Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2017-18


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Purdue 100.0%   2   28 - 6 15 - 3 28 - 6 15 - 3 +18.1      +9.0 4 +9.0 4 68.3 196 +17.6 8 +19.1 3
6 Michigan St. 100.0%   3   29 - 4 16 - 2 29 - 4 16 - 2 +17.9      +9.0 6 +9.0 6 67.3 220 +19.7 3 +20.8 1
10 Michigan 100.0%   3   27 - 7 13 - 5 27 - 7 13 - 5 +16.2      +8.1 10 +8.1 10 62.4 328 +17.7 6 +16.5 4
17 Ohio St. 99.6%   4   24 - 8 15 - 3 24 - 8 15 - 3 +14.2      +7.1 17 +7.1 17 65.9 252 +14.8 16 +19.6 2
28 Penn St. 12.5%   21 - 13 9 - 9 21 - 13 9 - 9 +12.1      +6.1 28 +6.1 28 68.9 181 +9.7 57 +9.6 8
45 Maryland 0.0%   18 - 13 8 - 10 18 - 13 8 - 10 +10.4      +5.2 45 +5.2 45 65.6 260 +9.4 59 +9.8 7
51 Nebraska 7.5%   22 - 10 13 - 5 22 - 10 13 - 5 +9.7      +4.9 51 +4.9 51 68.2 198 +11.9 31 +15.3 5
64 Wisconsin 0.0%   15 - 18 7 - 11 15 - 18 7 - 11 +8.3      +4.1 64 +4.1 64 59.3 349 +6.8 79 +7.6 9
66 Indiana 0.0%   16 - 15 9 - 9 16 - 15 9 - 9 +8.0      +4.0 66 +4.0 66 66.4 241 +7.2 75 +9.9 6
79 Northwestern 0.0%   14 - 17 6 - 12 14 - 17 6 - 12 +6.9      +3.5 79 +3.5 79 62.0 333 +5.8 89 +5.9 10
86 Iowa 0.0%   14 - 19 4 - 14 14 - 19 4 - 14 +6.3      +3.2 86 +3.2 86 73.3 71 +4.4 104 +2.9 11
94 Illinois 0.0%   13 - 18 4 - 14 13 - 18 4 - 14 +5.2      +2.6 94 +2.6 94 72.9 79 +3.7 111 +2.2 13
109 Minnesota 0.0%   15 - 17 4 - 14 15 - 17 4 - 14 +4.4      +2.2 109 +2.2 109 72.9 81 +5.0 98 +2.4 12
121 Rutgers 0.0%   14 - 19 3 - 15 14 - 19 3 - 15 +3.0      +1.5 121 +1.5 121 64.8 284 +2.3 131 +0.8 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Purdue 2.0 100.0
Michigan St. 1.0 100.0
Michigan 4.0 100.0
Ohio St. 2.0 100.0
Penn St. 6.0 100.0
Maryland 8.0 100.0
Nebraska 4.0 100.0
Wisconsin 9.0 100.0
Indiana 6.0 100.0
Northwestern 10.0 100.0
Iowa 11.0 100.0
Illinois 11.0 100.0
Minnesota 11.0 100.0
Rutgers 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Purdue 15 - 3 100.0
Michigan St. 16 - 2 100.0
Michigan 13 - 5 100.0
Ohio St. 15 - 3 100.0
Penn St. 9 - 9 100.0
Maryland 8 - 10 100.0
Nebraska 13 - 5 100.0
Wisconsin 7 - 11 100.0
Indiana 9 - 9 100.0
Northwestern 6 - 12 100.0
Iowa 4 - 14 100.0
Illinois 4 - 14 100.0
Minnesota 4 - 14 100.0
Rutgers 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue
Michigan St. 100.0% 100.0
Michigan
Ohio St.
Penn St.
Maryland
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Indiana
Northwestern
Iowa
Illinois
Minnesota
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   24.9 44.9 27.4 2.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   18.5 36.7 36.0 8.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 3   2.3 13.0 58.2 23.5 2.9 0.1
Ohio St. 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 4   0.3 1.1 15.7 35.2 32.2 13.7 1.3 0.1 0.4 99.6%
Penn St. 12.5% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0 0.4 10.1 2.0 0.0 87.5 12.5%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nebraska 7.5% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0 5.7 1.7 0.0 92.5 7.5%
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.0% 70.5% 43.0% 23.6% 12.3% 6.1%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.9% 68.5% 41.2% 22.4% 11.6% 5.6%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 88.2% 57.3% 29.0% 14.0% 6.5% 2.7%
Ohio St. 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 76.1% 41.1% 16.3% 7.4% 2.7% 0.9%
Penn St. 12.5% 12.1% 7.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 7.5% 7.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.2 0.4 80.5 18.4 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 4.1 0.4 88.7 10.8 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 3.6 0.0 0.4 5.8 32.9 57.8 3.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.1% 2.4 1.9 15.4 36.0 35.3 11.4 0.1
Elite Eight 83.0% 1.3 17.0 44.3 30.9 7.4 0.5
Final Four 55.5% 0.7 44.5 44.0 10.7 0.8
Final Game 31.2% 0.3 68.8 29.2 2.0
Champion 15.3% 0.2 84.7 15.3